F1 Championship Predictions

2026 Season

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Championship Win Probability

After R15: Baku

	Driver	Team
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	302.0	2.7	7%	3.8	-	91.9% ±5.5
2	George Russell	Mercedes	236.0	3.5	13%	2.2	-	7.2% ±5.2
3	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	199.0	4.1	7%	5.0	-	0.6% ±1.6
4	Lando Norris	McLaren	186.0	3.8	27%	2.6	-	0.1% ±0.7
5	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	179.0	4.2	20%	3.4	-	0.1% ±0.8
6	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	163.0	3.6	27%	6.6	-	0.0% ±0.0
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	120.0	6.4	20%	4.8	-	0.0% ±0.0
8	Isack Hadjar Out	Red Bull	86.0	6.0	17%	13.5	-	0.0% ±0.0
9	Liam Lawson Out	RB F1 Team	59.0	8.8	7%	10.2	-	0.0% ±0.0
10	Pierre Gasly Out	Alpine F1 Team	41.0	9.2	13%	11.6	-	0.0% ±0.0
11	Arvid Lindblad Out	RB F1 Team	37.0	9.6	7%	9.3	40%	0.0% ±0.0
12	Franco Colapinto Out	Alpine F1 Team	27.0	11.1	7%	11.4	-	0.0% ±0.0
13	Oliver Bearman Out	Haas F1 Team	20.0	12.0	27%	13.4	-	0.0% ±0.0
14	Gabriel Bortoleto Out	Audi	10.0	11.4	7%	11.8	20%	0.0% ±0.0
15	Nico Hülkenberg Out	Audi	7.0	11.1	27%	17.3	40%	0.0% ±0.0
16	Esteban Ocon Out	Haas F1 Team	7.0	12.9	7%	12.8	-	0.0% ±0.0
17	Carlos Sainz Out	Williams	7.0	13.3	20%	14.4	-	0.0% ±0.0
18	Alexander Albon Out	Williams	5.0	14.9	33%	17.4	-	0.0% ±0.0
19	Fernando Alonso Out	Aston Martin	3.0	15.3	40%	17.5	20%	0.0% ±0.0
42	Valtteri Bottas Out	Cadillac F1 Team	0.0	17.1	47%	18.5	20%	0.0% ±0.0
43	Sergio Pérez Out	Cadillac F1 Team	0.0	15.4	33%	18.4	-	0.0% ±0.0
44	Lance Stroll Out	Aston Martin	0.0	16.2	67%	17.8	-	0.0% ±0.0

Based on 10,000 simulated season outcomes per race

Odds Progression

Confidence intervals

Shaded areas show 95% confidence intervals. Bands are wider early in the season when more races remain and the outcome is less certain, narrowing as the championship progresses. Only the top 5 contenders are shown by default — click the legend to toggle others.

Race Calendar

Round	Race	Date	Status
1	Melbourne	Mar 8, 2026	Completed
2	Shanghai	Mar 15, 2026	Completed
3	Suzuka	Mar 29, 2026	Completed
4	Miami	May 3, 2026	Completed
5	Montreal	May 24, 2026	Completed
6	Monte Carlo	Jun 7, 2026	Completed
7	Barcelona	Jun 14, 2026	Completed
8	Spielberg	Jun 28, 2026	Completed
9	Silverstone	Jul 5, 2026	Completed
10	Spa	Jul 19, 2026	Completed
11	Budapest	Jul 26, 2026	Completed
12	Zandvoort	Aug 23, 2026	Completed
13	Monza	Sep 6, 2026	Completed
14	Madrid	Sep 13, 2026	Completed
15	Baku	Sep 26, 2026	Completed
16	Kuala Lumpur	Oct 4, 2026	Upcoming
17	Marina Bay	Oct 11, 2026	Upcoming
18	Austin	Oct 25, 2026	Upcoming
19	Mexico City	Nov 1, 2026	Upcoming
20	São Paulo	Nov 8, 2026	Upcoming
21	Las Vegas	Nov 22, 2026	Upcoming
22	Lusail	Nov 29, 2026	Upcoming
23	Abu Dhabi	Dec 6, 2026	Upcoming