F1 Championship Predictions
2026 Season
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Championship Win Probability
|
|
Driver
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 100.0 | 27.5% ±13.7 | |
| 2 | 80.0 | 17.9% ±11.8 | |
| 3 | 59.0 | 11.6% ±9.9 | |
| 4 | 51.0 | 9.5% ±9.0 | |
| 5 | 51.0 | 8.6% ±8.6 | |
| 6 | 43.0 | 6.7% ±7.7 | |
| 7 | 26.0 | 4.2% ±6.2 | |
| 8 | 17.0 | 1.5% ±3.7 | |
| 9 | 16.0 | 2.4% ±4.7 | |
| 10 | 10.0 | 2.0% ±4.3 | |
| 11 | 7.0 | 1.6% ±3.8 | |
| 12 | 4.0 | 0.3% ±1.8 | |
| 13 | 4.0 | 1.2% ±3.3 | |
| 14 | 4.0 | 1.3% ±3.5 | |
| 15 | 2.0 | 0.5% ±2.2 | |
| 16 | 1.0 | 0.8% ±2.7 | |
| 17 | 1.0 | 0.5% ±2.2 | |
| 40 | 0.0 | 0.5% ±2.1 | |
| 41 | 0.0 | 0.5% ±2.1 | |
| 42 | 0.0 | 0.3% ±1.6 | |
| 43 | 0.0 | 0.3% ±1.8 | |
| 44 | 0.0 | 0.3% ±1.8 |
Based on 10,000 simulated season outcomes per race
Odds Progression
Shaded areas show 95% confidence intervals. Bands are wider early in the season when more races remain and the outcome is less certain, narrowing as the championship progresses. Only the top 5 contenders are shown by default — click the legend to toggle others.
Race Calendar
|
Round
|
Race
|
Status
|
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melbourne | |
| 2 | Shanghai | |
| 3 | Suzuka | |
| 4 | Miami | |
| 5 | Montreal | |
| 6 | Monte Carlo | |
| 7 | Barcelona | |
| 8 | Spielberg | |
| 9 | Silverstone | |
| 10 | Spa | |
| 11 | Budapest | |
| 12 | Zandvoort | |
| 13 | Monza | |
| 14 | Madrid | |
| 15 | Baku | |
| 16 | Marina Bay | |
| 17 | Austin | |
| 18 | Mexico City | |
| 19 | São Paulo | |
| 20 | Las Vegas | |
| 21 | Lusail | |
| 22 | Abu Dhabi |