F1 Championship Predictions

2026 Season

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Championship Win Probability

After R11: Budapest

	Driver	Team
1	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	219.0	2.9	9%	3.8	-	61.9% ±11.7
2	Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	169.0	3.7	0%	4.5	-	20.3% ±9.7
3	George Russell	Mercedes	160.0	3.9	18%	2.5	-	8.5% ±6.7
4	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	138.0	4.1	18%	3.8	-	5.1% ±5.3
5	Lando Norris	McLaren	128.0	4.3	27%	2.5	-	2.8% ±3.9
6	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	109.0	4.1	27%	6.8	-	1.0% ±2.4
7	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	92.0	5.8	27%	4.8	-	0.4% ±1.5
8	Isack Hadjar	Red Bull	68.0	6.4	18%	13.5	-	0.1% ±0.8
9	Liam Lawson	RB F1 Team	43.0	8.5	9%	10.0	-	0.0% ±0.2
10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine F1 Team	42.0	8.7	9%	12.5	-	0.1% ±0.5
11	Arvid Lindblad	RB F1 Team	23.0	10.0	9%	9.0	50%	0.0% ±0.0
12	Franco Colapinto	Alpine F1 Team	19.0	11.5	0%	11.3	-	0.0% ±0.0
13	Oliver Bearman	Haas F1 Team	18.0	11.5	27%	13.0	-	0.0% ±0.0
14	Gabriel Bortoleto	Audi	10.0	10.7	9%	12.7	25%	0.0% ±0.0
15	Carlos Sainz	Williams	6.0	13.3	18%	13.0	-	0.0% ±0.0
16	Alexander Albon	Williams	5.0	14.6	27%	17.8	-	0.0% ±0.0
17	Esteban Ocon	Haas F1 Team	3.0	13.3	0%	12.5	-	0.0% ±0.0
18	Nico Hülkenberg	Audi	2.0	11.6	36%	15.0	50%	0.0% ±0.0
19	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	1.0	16.0	36%	17.3	25%	0.0% ±0.0
42	Valtteri Bottas	Cadillac F1 Team	0.0	16.7	45%	18.3	25%	0.0% ±0.0
43	Sergio Pérez	Cadillac F1 Team	0.0	15.3	36%	17.8	-	0.0% ±0.0
44	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	0.0	16.2	55%	18.0	-	0.0% ±0.0

Based on 10,000 simulated season outcomes per race

Odds Progression

Confidence intervals

Shaded areas show 95% confidence intervals. Bands are wider early in the season when more races remain and the outcome is less certain, narrowing as the championship progresses. Only the top 5 contenders are shown by default — click the legend to toggle others.

Race Calendar

Round	Race	Date	Status
1	Melbourne	Mar 8, 2026	Completed
2	Shanghai	Mar 15, 2026	Completed
3	Suzuka	Mar 29, 2026	Completed
4	Miami	May 3, 2026	Completed
5	Montreal	May 24, 2026	Completed
6	Monte Carlo	Jun 7, 2026	Completed
7	Barcelona	Jun 14, 2026	Completed
8	Spielberg	Jun 28, 2026	Completed
9	Silverstone	Jul 5, 2026	Completed
10	Spa	Jul 19, 2026	Completed
11	Budapest	Jul 26, 2026	Completed
12	Zandvoort	Aug 23, 2026	Upcoming
13	Monza	Sep 6, 2026	Upcoming
14	Madrid	Sep 13, 2026	Upcoming
15	Baku	Sep 26, 2026	Upcoming
16	Marina Bay	Oct 11, 2026	Upcoming
17	Austin	Oct 25, 2026	Upcoming
18	Mexico City	Nov 1, 2026	Upcoming
19	São Paulo	Nov 8, 2026	Upcoming
20	Las Vegas	Nov 22, 2026	Upcoming
21	Lusail	Nov 29, 2026	Upcoming
22	Abu Dhabi	Dec 6, 2026	Upcoming